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Predicting The Midterms... The Generic Congressional Ballot


The 2022 midterm elections are now 148 days away, and Republicans have a nine-point lead in their bid to recapture control of Congress.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the elections for Congress were held today, 48% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 39% would vote for the Democrat. Just four percent (4%) would vote for some other candidate, but another nine percent (9%) are not sure.

The GOP has led the generic Congressional ballot all year.

In June 2018, before voters handed Democrats their first House majority in eight years, Democrats held a four-point advantage (44% to 40%) in the generic ballot question. As the November 2018 midterms neared, the margin was a statistical dead heat – Republicans 46%, Democrats 45% – in the final poll before Democrats won a slim House majority while Republicans gained Senate seats to maintain control of that chamber.

The Republican lead on the congressional ballot is due both to greater GOP partisan intensity and a 17-point advantage among independents. While 86% of Republican voters say they would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate, only 78% of Democrats would vote for the Democratic candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 44% would vote Republican and 27% would vote Democrat, while 10% would vote for some other candidate and 19% are undecided.

Fifty-five percent (55%) of whites, 26% of Black voters and 39% of other minorities would vote Republican if the election were held today. Fifty-nine percent (59%) of Black voters, 34% of whites and 42% of other minorities would vote Democrat.

The so-called “gender gap” has dwindled in the latest findings, with men (50%) now three points more likely than women voters (47%) to prefer Republican congressional candidates. The gap was six points last week, and nine points two weeks ago.

Voters under 40 favor Democrats by a margin of 46% to 35%, but 53% of voters ages 40-64 and 58% of those 65 and older would vote Republican if the election were held today.

Breaking down the electorate by income brackets, Republicans enjoy their largest advantage – 52% to 34% – among voters earning between $30,000 and $50,000 a year. The GOP lead is only one point (45%-44%) among those with annual incomes between $50,000 and $100,000.

The Republican advantage is strongest among retirees, who favor the GOP by a 24-point margin.

Voters overwhelmingly support a Republican congresswoman’s demand for roll call votes in the House of Representatives, and also believe members of Congress should read the bills they pass into law.

The new documentary “2000 Mules,” which investigates evidence of widespread cheating in the 2020 presidential election, is hitting home with voters who have seen the film.


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